Neurotechnologies in Geopolitics, Management, Economics during the Global crisis and hybrid Wars (Part 1) / Нейротехнологии в геополитике, управлении, экономике во время глобального кризиса и гибридных войн (часть 1) Neurotechnologies in Geopolitics, management, economy during the global crisis and hybrid wars (part 1)

Introduction. The relevance of this article is due to the fact that in 2022 the geopolitical risks of socio-economic development are increasing. This increase in risks is associated with the deepening of the global crisis, which has moved into its geopolitical phase. It should be borne in mind that the aggravation of the geopolitical situation is associated with a number of factors: the growing contradictions between states; the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic; the formation of a new world order; the confrontational behavior of individual countries and others. This creates a high geopolitical risk of the processes of sustainable development of countries and the entire world community as a whole.

The hypothesis of this article is the statement that the formation of methodological provisions of neurogeopoliticology (neurogeopoliticology) can reduce the geopolitical risks of the state in the context of a global systemic crisis.

The purpose of the article is to reduce the geopolitical risk in international relations during the development of the 9th technological order.

To achieve this goal , the following tasks are solved:

- the concept is introduced and the features of geopolitical risk are studied;

- the influence of geopolitical risk on the sustainability of the development of the 9th technological order is investigated;

- methodological provisions of neurogeopoliticology (neurogeopoliticology) are being formed;

- the change of world orders in their connection with technological patterns is being studied;

- describes the change of military methods and tools in geopolitics with the change of technological patterns;

- the concept of managing the geopolitical risk of the state is being formed during the development of the 9th technological order.

The object of the work is neurogeopolitics in a situation of global systemic crisis.

The subject of the article is the methodological aspects of neurogeopolitics in the conditions of the 9th technological order.

First of all, it is necessary to justify the relevance of this article. To do this, you need to analyze scientific publications on the topic of this article. As is known, the global crisis began in 2008 ^{[1, pp. 14-26]}. This crisis is connected with the formation of a new technological order. Within the framework of the theory of technological orders, it is proved that in the period up to 2040, the following types of technologies will receive priority development: neurotechnologies; nanotechnologies; digitalization technologies; information, resource-saving, environmentally friendly and other technologies ^{[2, pp. 65-82]}.

Scientists are actively studying the areas of practical application of neurotechnologies in real economic activity ^{[3, pp. 191-193]}.

To create a technological platform for improving the quality of training of specialists in the field of neurotechnology ^{[4, pp. 26-35]}.

Neurotechnologies are used to implement strategies for promoting consumer goods ^{[5, pp. 109-113]}. Experts express the opinion that the professions of the future are connected with the development of neurotechnologies ^{[6, pp. 177-179]}. It is believed that the development of neurotechnologies requires legal regulation of these technologies ^{[7, pp. 502-521]}. Researchers believe that the development of neurotechnologies is associated with the spread of the ideas of neurobiology ^{[8, pp. 32-42]}. Analysts are studying the possibility of using neurotechnologies in the field of social management ^{[9, pp. 34-45]}. Modern researchers consider neuroeconomics as a part of neurobiology ^{[10, pp. 88-90]}. Experts note the peculiarities of economic behavior of subjects in the conditions of neuroeconomics ^{[11, pp. 54-65; 12, pp. 163-167]}.

Scientists study the features of the decision-making process in the context of neuroeconomics ^{[13, pp. 103-109; 14, pp. 85-87]}.

One of the most dynamically developing areas of application of neurotechnologies in the economy is neuromarketing ^{[15, pp. 346-350; 16, pp. 30; 17; 18, pp. 182-192]}.

Neurotechnologies can be considered as one of the directions of development of mechanical engineering ^{[19, pp. 44-63]}.

Neurotechnologies are increasingly used in geopolitics ^{[20, pp. 75-88; 21]}.

The development of neurotechnologies will affect management methods in the period of a new technological order ^{[22, p.2]}.

New scientific and practical directions may arise, for example, neurogeopolitics may be developed ^{[23, p. 54-63]}.

The introduction of neurotechnologies can be promising, for example, when studying operations ^{[24, p. 2]}.

The influence of neurotechnologies on management decision-making processes will be studied in more detail ^{[25, p. 2]}.

An important element of global governance is that at the beginning of the 21st century Zbigniew Brzezinski describes the imperatives of the leading subject of geopolitics ^{[26, p. 2]}. In the period of globalization, there is an increasing need to assess and manage geopolitical risks and other risks of organizations' activities ^{[27, p. 11-18; 28, p.2]}.

An important object of research is the structure of the world order and its historical evolution ^{[29; 30, pp. 3-29]}. During the crisis, the importance of the theory of state and law increases ^{[31, p. 2]}. States should pay attention to strategic risk management ^{[32, p. 34]}. During the crisis, the possibility of developing neurotechnologies should be taken into account ^{[33, pp. 45-57]}.

Scientists note that neurotechnologies can increase the efficiency of activities in a number of areas: neuromanagement can be useful in the management of a firm ^{[34, p. 13-21]}; in the personnel management of organizations ^{[35, p. 149-154]}; in the process of organization development ^{[36, p. 92-94]}; in the project activities of organizations ^{[37, p. 25-33]}; when managing the project team by forming neuro-leadership ^{[38, pp. 102-104]}; when conducting sociological research ^{[39, pp. 43-52]}; during the political struggle for votes ^{[40, pp. 78-93]}; for the formation of the personality of the manager ^{[41, pp. 209-211]}. Experts believe that a new reality is being observed in 2022, which leads to the formation of a new managerial thinking ^{[42, pp. 107-117]}.

Neuromarketing technologies are most intensively used in the service sector in the 21st century ^{[43, pp. 29-32]}. The use of neuromarketing creates risks associated with the impact of these technologies on the subconscious of consumers ^{[44, pp. 142-146]}. Scientists believe that there is a risk of free will as a result of the use of neuromarketing technologies ^{[45, pp. 658-672]}.

As a result of the analysis of scientific publications on the topic of this article, we can draw the following conclusion: the topic of this scientific article is relevant.

Method. The global crisis in the post-industrial world is accompanied by hybrid wars. In the course of hybrid wars, the problems of the formation of a new world order are being solved. Hybrid warfare has a complex structure that includes the following elements: diplomatic wars; information wars; currency wars; ideological opposition; scientific and technical competition; competition in the field of education; military operations; special operations and more. Neurotechnologies can be an important tool for influencing the psyche and behavior of the population, decision makers. At the same time, the development of neurotechnologies is one of the main directions of technological development in the period of the 9th technological order.

During the formation of a new technological order, neurotechnology is used in all new fields of activity (geopolitics, management, communications). During the geopolitical crisis, geopolitical risks increase dramatically. Due to the complex structure and process of the impact of geopolitical risk on socio-economic processes, a conceptual approach to the construction of a system of management of the geopolitical risk of the state's vital activity can be recommended.

Under the concept of managing the geopolitical risk of socio-economic development of the country, we will understand a systematic view of: the goals of managing geopolitical risk; a set of ways and tools to reduce this risk on the part of the subjects of its management (international organizations; society, business, government agencies, transnational corporations).

The formation of such a concept can be carried out within the framework of the risk theory of state and law. With such a conceptual approach, the state and law are understood as organizational tools for reducing the risks of life to practically acceptable values. If the geopolitical risks exceed the permissible limits, this may signal the loss of part of the sovereignty and/or control over part of the internal elements of the state (industries, regions).

The effectiveness of the concept of managing the geopolitical risk of socio-economic development will be defined as the ability of the risk management system formed on the basis of this concept to provide an acceptable level of such risk and its consequences.

The relevance of neuroeconomical, neurocrisisological, neurogeopolitological studies of anti-crisis management measures increases in a situation of ongoing crisis. It is necessary to take into account the growing international tensions. This tension is connected with the process of forming a new world order.

The prediction of the image of the future new world order was carried out in ^{[1, p. 52-56; 2, p. 65-82]}. The image of the future new world order includes the following elements: the system of geopolitical governance will have a distributed character both at the global and national levels; several states (geopolitical poles) will gradually stand out, which will form the core of the new world order; each of the geopolitical poles will form its own subsystems: military-political subsystems; legal subsystem; currency and credit subsystem; technological basis of activity; scientific system; educational system; cultural system and others. The national currencies of the states that have become poles of the new world order will become international means of payment ^{[1, p. 52-56; 2, p. 65-82]}. This trend is confirmed by real events taking place in geopolitics in 2022.

Such tension associated with the formation of a new world order may be the cause (source) of stress for those making such decisions. In turn, stress can be the reason for the possible inconsistency (paradoxical) of anti-crisis response measures. The presence of stress in international relations gives grounds to talk about the need to use neurotechnology methods in such studies. At the same time, the very development of neurotechnologies refers to the formation of a new 9th technological order.

Here are some examples of measures and management decisions that can be referred to as neuroeconomic, neurocrisisological and other solutions.

Example. No. 1. As you know, the President of the World Bank proposed (Financial Times, 8.11.2010) the idea of a partial return to the gold-cheap version of the gold standard. This supply may increase the demand for gold. The price of gold began to rise. However, the analysis within the framework of the development of the technological theory of money has shown the ineffectiveness of such a solution to the problem of stability of the banking system from the point of view of the sustainability of socio-economic development. It has been proven that the implementation of the proposal to return to the gold standard will lead to an increase in gold prices. After the publication of the results of the study, the price of gold went down. The proposal to return to the gold standard was not implemented. At the same time, the economic effect of such an anti-crisis scientific study of international monetary and credit relations (neuroeconomic analysis) can be estimated as the difference in the value of the entire volume of bank gold before the study and after such a study. We will take into account that the weight of bank gold in the world is at least 60,000 tons. The change in the price of gold was $ 700 per troy ounce: at the peak of this price, it was $ 1920 per troy ounce (summer 2011); the price of gold was $ 1200 per troy ounce (summer 2014) after the decline in the price of gold. To get the magnitude of the effect, multiply the change in the gold price of $700 per ounce by the number of ounces (31.4 grams) of gold worldwide. It is estimated that such an economic effect may amount to more than one trillion US dollars ^{[12, pp. 250-254]}.

This indicates the high economic efficiency of the use of neurotechnologies in global and national governance.

Example No. 2. In 2020, in a situation of excessive oil supply, some oil-producing countries began to increase the production of this raw material. This led to a decline in oil prices and put not only segments of the oil industry on the brink of survival, but also the sustainability of the socio-economic development of oil exporting countries. Presumably, such decisions to increase oil production were made in a situation of increased stress? Crisis creates stress. And stress itself can be the cause of paradoxical management decisions, stock market crises, crises in international relations? It was only during the subsequent negotiations of the interested countries that oil production quotas were determined, which allowed oil prices to stabilize.

These examples indicate that it is necessary to talk about the use of neurotechnologies in management and neuroeconomics. At the same time, presumably in all the described situations, there was an additional increased geopolitical risk of socio-economic development of society, business, and the state. This suggests that neuro-economic, neuro-geopolitical methods can be effective primarily in studies of various kinds (including geopolitical) risks.

Consider the concept of "geopolitical risk". This concept was introduced into scientific circulation by the author of this article (Valery Vladimirovich Glushchenko) in 1999? Presumably, the first scientific definition of the concept of "geopolitical risk" was given in ^{[13, pp. 46-47]}? The concept of geopolitical risk was introduced into practical use relatively recently in 2006. And was this concept first introduced into practical use in the field of banking when justifying the decision on the key rate by the European Central Bank in the summer of 2006?

The geopolitical risk was understood as the possibility of deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the state for any of the possible reasons. The structure of geopolitical risk includes: the possibility of the country's conquest from the outside by other states; the possibility of the country's collapse under the influence of internal destructive forces; the possibility of lowering the degree of sovereignty; country risks (currency convertibility risks, transfer risks or payment moratorium). The essence and structural elements of geopolitical risk were described in ^{[14, pp. 85-87]}. At the same time, based on the results of monitoring the situation at the beginning of 2022, the geopolitical risk of the state can include: demographic risk; epidemiological risk. By demographic risk, we agree to understand the possibility of a significant reduction or outflow of population from the subject of geopolitics.

In 2022, the epidemiological risk is associated with the continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, the epidemiological risk itself may include the following structural elements: a decrease in the population (demographic damage); the risk of a decrease in the quality of the workforce due to the long-term consequences of COVID-19; the risk of a decrease in business activity and, as a result, a decrease in gross domestic product; the risk of separatism of the country's regions due to violations of existing systemic relationships between different regions one country and/or different countries, the other.

In this article, it is proposed to develop, in addition to the well-known neuromarketing, neuroeconomics, a new scientific direction in crisis (neurocrisisology) and two new scientific directions in geopolitics, namely neurogeopolitics and neurogeopoliticology (neurogeopoliticology).

The main scientific and practical problem of all neuro-disciplines can be considered the reduction of the geopolitical risk of the development of states.

Geopolitical risk refers to fundamental risks. Fundamental risk is a risk that is beyond the control of one person or a group of people. The geopolitical risk is characterized by huge damages. From the point of view of business activity, geopolitical risk is a force majeure circumstance.

There are two points of view on the possibility of managing geopolitical risk: fundamental geopolitical risk cannot be managed. With this approach, geopolitical risk is defined as force majeure for enterprises and individuals.

With the second approach, it is believed that the geopolitical risk can be managed. However, such management requires adequate in scale and degree of intensity of the impact of subjects of geopolitical management.

Usually, geopolitical risk is referred to as "pure" risks". Pure risks are called as a result of which only damages and losses are possible. But the practice of geopolitical governance (for example, in Japan and Germany after 1945 or China at the end of the 20th century) has shown the possibility of positive results. Therefore, the management of geopolitical risk can also create a chance for the formation of a country's geopolitical leadership. These examples (Japan, Germany, China and others) allow us to classify geopolitical risk as speculative risks.

Speculative risk contains the possibility of a positive deviation (chance).

In 2022, 177 countries of the world are covered by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. This pandemic is taking place against the backdrop of a crisis in international relations. This crisis of international relations has: a global character, since most countries are included in it; the crisis has a systemic character, which means that it covers all aspects of the activities of states and international relations; the crisis has a geopolitical character-it covers the sphere of international relations.

At the same time, the observed pandemic can be viewed from at least two points of view: one of the reflections of the global systemic crisis; part (structural element) of the country's geopolitical risk.

The analysis shows that the reason for the rapid global development of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic may be: excessive openness of countries in the context of globalization; insufficient (for rapid localization of the pandemic) effectiveness of global, regional and/or individual national subsystems of anti-epidemic protection of the population. At the same time, the development of a pandemic reduces the consumption of all types of resources. Further, there is a drop in demand in all types of global markets, including the markets of metals, oil and petroleum products and others. Thus, the reduction of consumption is fraught with further preservation and even development of the crisis socio-economic situation.

It can be noted that it is possible to use the scenario method to predict the geopolitical situation. So Zbigniew Brzezinski in the early 2000s described a forecast scenario for the development of the situation in the post-Soviet space. Reality has confirmed the effectiveness of such forecasting and Brzezinski's methodological approach in forecasting the geopolitical situation ^{[26, p.139]}. It is likely that the method of constructing predictive scenarios can also be effective in studying the situation generated by the pandemic under study. In addition, the proposal to carry out a strategic assessment of geopolitical risk can also be practically used ^{[27, p. 11-18]}. Based on this analysis, it is possible to develop the concept of managing geopolitical and/or epidemiological risk.

The analysis of scientific publications on the topic of this article shows that the task of practically effective scientific scenario or other forecasting and justification of anti-crisis measures is actively solved by the expert community. It should be remembered that with a decrease in the effectiveness of planning and forecasting, the probability of paradoxical anti-crisis solutions may increase. At the same time, the accuracy of forecast strategic results and estimates of the effectiveness of implemented anti-crisis solutions may decrease.

In 2022, it can be argued that in the context of globalization, the global "financial fragility" of the world economy is really increasing. The author of the term "fragility" is Hyman Minsky ^{[28, p. 92]}. This situation generates an increase in the degree of "fragility" of the existing world order. All this can reduce the sustainability of the socio-economic development of society, business, and states. This further confirms the high relevance of scientific research in the field of neurocrisisology (neurogeopoliticology, neurogeopolitics, etc.).

By analogy with neuroeconomics, neurogeopolitics will denote a scientific discipline that studies: methods of measuring stress; game approaches in activity; methods of decision-making in a crisis. Including the possibility of making paradoxical geopolitical decisions in conditions of uncertainty, lack of information, counteraction of a reasonable opponent, stock market shocks and acute crisis, etc.

Neurogeopolitics, considered as a part of political science, can perform the following functions: cognitive, predictive, instrumental, managerial and other functions. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the peculiarities of the neurogeopolitical scope of application and/or the specifics of the implementation of solutions.

The sphere of interests of neurogeopolitics can be considered: situations associated with a high level of stress of persons making geopolitical decisions; decision-making in a geopolitical conflict; decision-making in a situation of a geopolitical game (the struggle of reasonable geopolitical opponents); decisions in stock market crashes and panic; situations when blocking the activities of international institutions and much more.

The main practical task of neurogeopolitics should be called the reduction of geopolitical risk in the areas of application of neurogeopolitics. At the same time, neurogeopolitics acts as a methodological tool for managing the solution of this key task of neurogeopolitics.

Methodological tools of neurogeopolitics can be: methods of collecting and processing information; presentation of information; analysis, diagnostics; synthesis and forecast; planning, organization, motivation and control; goal setting, neuromarketing, neuromanagement and others. The use of management neuromarketing methods in geopolitical activities, including the possibility of using technical means and professional skills of profilers and other specialists within the framework of the geopolitical activities of the subjects involved in it, can also be attributed to the field of neurogeopolitics ^{[20, pp. 75-88]}.

At the same time, for the effective development and selection of optimal methods and tools in the field of neuro-geopolitics, it is necessary to develop neuro-geo-politics. The need for the